*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts. There is a lot of data and it is too wide. If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best. Sorry.
I wanted to dive deeper into an actual hitters in game bat speed and see if the ratios and outcomes correlate. I do want to note that I changed the OPT BAT/EXIT ratio to an easy SMASH which is Smash factor. This is a title change only so when comparing my old data to new, these are interchangeable.
I picked Robinson Cano. I was going to do a different analysis on him but I was more interested in applying this theory. I wanted to look at his best or optimal exit velo outcomes. I decided to pick all fly balls (to account for spin. You can have a line drive and a fly ball both at the same launch angle, or at least statcast shows this. I assume its due to height of the hit ball as well and not launch alone) that were hit in a 21-30 degree launch. In my experience, these are balls that are usually squared up and are the ideal launch angle. These averaged 25 degrees.
Data Explanation
Lets look at the data (left to right)
- Pitch Type – Self explanatory
- Release Speed – Self explanatory
- BB Type – Self explanatory
- Hit Distance – Self explanatory
- Launch Speed – Exit Velo
- Launch Angle – Self explanatory
- 1.2 0.2 Exp – This is the expected exit velo based on pitch speed and bat speed while making optimal contact. This is a sliding scale and we adjust bat speed to match exit velos.
- Opt Smash – This is the optimal smash factor or the optimal ratio of 1.2 0.2 Exp divided by Bat Speed.
- Bat Speed – The assumed bat speed to create the actual exit velo based on pitch speed.
- Act Smash – This gets into a different concept of calculating bat speed. If we assume that bat speed stays constant each swing, then the only variable would be quality of contact. It would range from optimal to poor. 1.45 or more would be optimal. 1.40 – 1.45 would be good. Remember that the smash factor changes as pitch and bat speed changes. It is not a constant number.
- Bat Speed Ass – Bat Speed Assumed is taking the average bat speed of the optimal swing/contact outcomes and using that static number. This assumes that bat speed is constant in every swing and only quality of contact is changing.
Cano Fly Balls 21-30 degrees
| Bat Speed Changes | Contact Changes | |||||||||||
| pitch_type | release_speed | bb_type | hit_distance_sc | launch_speed | launch_angle | 1.2 0.2 Exp | Opt Smash | Bat Speed | Act Smash | Bat Speed Ass | ||
| FS | 87 | fly_ball | 403 | 107.9 | 21 | 107.4 | 1.432 | 75 | 1.56565144 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 79 | fly_ball | 348 | 96.2 | 21 | 96.2 | 1.4358 | 67 | 1.395882 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 93.6 | fly_ball | 413 | 101.9 | 23 | 101.52 | 1.4713 | 69 | 1.47859019 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 88.9 | fly_ball | 404 | 108.1 | 23 | 107.78 | 1.4371 | 75 | 1.56855348 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 84.8 | fly_ball | 372 | 100.6 | 23 | 100.96 | 1.4423 | 70 | 1.45972692 | 68.917 | ||
| FC | 90.3 | fly_ball | 371 | 99.2 | 25 | 99.66 | 1.4656 | 68 | 1.43941263 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 91.3 | fly_ball | 413 | 107.1 | 25 | 107.06 | 1.4468 | 74 | 1.55404327 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 92.7 | fly_ball | 339 | 94.1 | 26 | 94.14 | 1.4943 | 63 | 1.36541057 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 92.8 | fly_ball | 405 | 102.3 | 27 | 102.56 | 1.4651 | 70 | 1.48439427 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 96.4 | fly_ball | 343 | 91.4 | 30 | 92.48 | 1.5161 | 61 | 1.326233 | 68.917 | ||
| FT | 90.8 | fly_ball | 379 | 100.6 | 30 | 99.76 | 1.4671 | 68 | 1.45972692 | 68.917 | ||
| CU | 73.8 | fly_ball | 368 | 95.8 | 30 | 95.16 | 1.4203 | 67 | 1.39007792 | 68.917 | ||
| AVERAGES | 88.450 | 379.833 | 100.433 | 25.333 | 100.390 | 1.458 | 68.917 | 1.457 | 68.917 | |||
This data shows that Cano has an average bat speed of 68.917 mph and an optimal smash of 1.458. It is assuming that if he sees an average pitch speed of 88.45 mph, swings his average bat speed of 68.917 mph, makes optimal smash factor contact of 1.458, his expected exit velo would be 100.39.
There are 3 ways of looking at this data. We must assume that these results in the 21-30 degree range were optimal contact.
- We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo. These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns.
- We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo. This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917. These calculations are in the Contact Changes column.
- In reality is a mix of both. Cano’s bat speed changes based on pitch type, location, count, and he makes different quality of contact to produce different smash factors.
Lets look at other data from Cano…
Cano Fly Balls above 30 degrees
We want to compare optimal contact fly balls to fly balls that were not.
| Bat Speed Changes | Contact Changes | |||||||||||
| pitch_type | release_speed | bb_type | hit_distance_sc | launch_speed | launch_angle | 1.2 0.2 Exp | Opt Smash | Bat Speed | Act Smash | Bat Speed Ass | ||
| FF | 92.8 | fly_ball | 344 | 93.9 | 31 | 94.16 | 1.4946 | 63 | 1.36250852 | 68.917 | ||
| FT | 90.4 | fly_ball | 345 | 93.2 | 31 | 92.48 | 1.4916 | 62 | 1.35235138 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 83.5 | fly_ball | 310 | 86.8 | 31 | 85.1 | 1.493 | 57 | 1.25948605 | 68.917 | ||
| FT | 95.7 | fly_ball | 305 | 88 | 31 | 88.74 | 1.53 | 58 | 1.2768983 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 90.9 | fly_ball | 385 | 103.7 | 32 | 103.38 | 1.4561 | 71 | 1.50470856 | 68.917 | ||
| FC | 94.1 | fly_ball | 249 | 72 | 34 | 72.82 | 1.6182 | 45 | 1.04473497 | 68.917 | ||
| SL | 88.2 | fly_ball | 348 | 98.4 | 34 | 98.04 | 1.4633 | 67 | 1.42780446 | 68.917 | ||
| FT | 99.4 | fly_ball | 334 | 94.2 | 35 | 94.28 | 1.5206 | 62 | 1.36686159 | 68.917 | ||
| FT | 92.1 | fly_ball | 305 | 87.5 | 35 | 86.82 | 1.5232 | 57 | 1.26964319 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 95.7 | fly_ball | 312 | 91.9 | 40 | 92.34 | 1.5138 | 61 | 1.33348811 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 92.3 | fly_ball | 230 | 75.5 | 46 | 74.86 | 1.5928 | 47 | 1.0955207 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 85.7 | fly_ball | 289 | 92.1 | 47 | 91.54 | 1.4765 | 62 | 1.33639015 | 68.917 | ||
| CH | 87 | fly_ball | 263 | 81.4 | 47 | 81 | 1.5283 | 53 | 1.18113093 | 68.917 | ||
| FC | 91.4 | fly_ball | 259 | 84.9 | 47 | 84.28 | 1.5324 | 55 | 1.23191665 | 68.917 | ||
| FF | 89.1 | fly_ball | 233 | 86.4 | 54 | 86.22 | 1.5126 | 57 | 1.25368197 | 68.917 | ||
| AVERAGES | 91.220 | 300.733 | 88.660 | 38.333 | 88.404 | 1.516 | 58.467 | 1.286 | 68.917 | |||
This data shows that his actual exit velos are down to 88.66 vs 100.43 mph. Average launch angle is up to 38 from 25 degrees. Lets look at the 3 ways to look at the data again.
- We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo. These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns. This would show that instead of having a range of 68-75 mph and average of 68.917 mph in the optimal exit velo chart he now has an average 58.467 bat speed and a range of 45-71 mph. This is probable but not likely. It is probable because he may have been fooled, check swing, got jammed and had to slow his bat speed down to make contact.
- We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo. This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917. These calculations are in the Contact Changes column. These show something that is more likely. Cano’s bat speed is closer to his average and he just made bad contact. We go from a smash of 1.457 in optimal to 1.286 in this chart. This would probably rank very low in smash factors.
- We assume that he had a lower bat speed and made worse contact. This is probably what is going on but hard to know without actual in game bat speed data from a bat sensor. We take something in the middle of 1 and 2.
What about line drives?
I know we will have some people claiming that fly balls might not be optimal contact and that line drives have the highest expected batting and on base averages. Lets look at those.
| Bat Speed Changes | Contact Changes | |||||||||||
| pitch_type | release_speed | bb_type | hit_distance_sc | launch_speed | launch_angle | 1.2 0.2 Exp | Opt Smash | Bat Speed | Act Smash | Bat Speed Ass | ||
| FT | 92.7 | line_drive | 169 | 104 | 6 | 103.74 | 1.4611 | 71 | 1.56955072 | 66.261 | ||
| CU | 82.6 | line_drive | 145 | 102.3 | 7 | 101.72 | 1.4327 | 71 | 1.5438946 | 66.261 | ||
| FT | 93.7 | line_drive | 158 | 105.2 | 7 | 105.14 | 1.4603 | 72 | 1.58766092 | 66.261 | ||
| FC | 89 | line_drive | 185 | 95 | 8 | 94.6 | 1.4781 | 64 | 1.43372421 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 89.9 | line_drive | 197 | 103.3 | 9 | 103.18 | 1.4532 | 71 | 1.55898643 | 66.261 | ||
| FC | 88.9 | line_drive | 221 | 104.2 | 9 | 102.98 | 1.4504 | 71 | 1.57256908 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 95.5 | line_drive | 178 | 90.9 | 9 | 89.9 | 1.5237 | 59 | 1.37184769 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 96.6 | line_drive | 242 | 105.9 | 10 | 105.72 | 1.4683 | 72 | 1.5982252 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 89.7 | line_drive | 222 | 98.5 | 10 | 98.34 | 1.4678 | 67 | 1.48654563 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 95.7 | line_drive | 228 | 102 | 11 | 101.94 | 1.4774 | 69 | 1.53936705 | 66.261 | ||
| CU | 81.4 | line_drive | 181 | 96.6 | 11 | 96.68 | 1.443 | 67 | 1.45787115 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 89.1 | line_drive | 258 | 106.1 | 11 | 106.62 | 1.4408 | 74 | 1.60124357 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 96.3 | line_drive | 289 | 104.6 | 12 | 104.46 | 1.4713 | 71 | 1.57860582 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 85.4 | line_drive | 282 | 102.6 | 12 | 102.28 | 1.4406 | 71 | 1.54842215 | 66.261 | ||
| CU | 80.4 | line_drive | 252 | 91.2 | 12 | 91.68 | 1.4552 | 63 | 1.37637524 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 95.8 | line_drive | 160 | 76 | 12 | 76.76 | 1.5992 | 48 | 1.14697937 | 66.261 | ||
| FT | 89.2 | line_drive | 265 | 97.9 | 13 | 97.04 | 1.4703 | 66 | 1.47749053 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 95.5 | line_drive | 170 | 76.1 | 13 | 76.7 | 1.5979 | 48 | 1.14848855 | 66.261 | ||
| FT | 89.6 | line_drive | 289 | 99.4 | 14 | 99.52 | 1.4635 | 68 | 1.50012828 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 92.1 | line_drive | 226 | 89.9 | 14 | 90.42 | 1.507 | 60 | 1.35675586 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 87.9 | line_drive | 269 | 94.1 | 14 | 94.38 | 1.4747 | 64 | 1.42014156 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 77.2 | line_drive | 275 | 93.5 | 15 | 93.44 | 1.4375 | 65 | 1.41108646 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 90.3 | line_drive | 311 | 104.9 | 15 | 104.46 | 1.4508 | 72 | 1.58313337 | 66.261 | ||
| AVERAGES | 89.761 | 224.870 | 97.574 | 11.043 | 97.465 | 1.475 | 66.261 | 1.473 | 66.261 | |||
Here are line drives up to 15 degrees. I would say that these are the best quality contact line drives a hitter can have. The ones under 10 degrees are probably lined to infielders or one hop an infielder but are still classified as a solid hit line drive.
Average line drive exit velo is 95.574. To get the bat speed assuming optimal smash his bat speed averages 66.261 mph. This is slightly lower than the 68.917 mph in his fly balls. This does make sense though and I have seen hitters have faster bat speeds the higher they hit the ball.
Everything checks out in this chart. Lets look at non optimal outcomes of line drives.
| Bat Speed Changes | Contact Changes | |||||||||||
| pitch_type | release_speed | bb_type | hit_distance_sc | launch_speed | launch_angle | 1.2 0.2 Exp | Opt Smash | Bat Speed | Act Smash | Bat Speed Ass | ||
| SI | 91.8 | line_drive | 245 | 85 | 16 | 85.56 | 1.5279 | 56 | 1.28280587 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 89 | line_drive | 217 | 68.2 | 16 | 68.2 | 1.6238 | 42 | 1.02926307 | 66.261 | ||
| FT | 95.6 | line_drive | 290 | 99.2 | 16 | 99.52 | 1.4854 | 67 | 1.49710991 | 66.261 | ||
| KC | 79.9 | line_drive | 223 | 82 | 17 | 81.98 | 1.4905 | 55 | 1.23753037 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 96.5 | line_drive | 311 | 91.5 | 17 | 91.3 | 1.5217 | 60 | 1.38090279 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 91.2 | line_drive | 251 | 87.7 | 17 | 87.84 | 1.5145 | 58 | 1.32355383 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 93.7 | line_drive | 332 | 96.9 | 19 | 96.74 | 1.4883 | 65 | 1.4623987 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 89 | line_drive | 326 | 94.3 | 19 | 94.6 | 1.4781 | 64 | 1.42315993 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 92 | line_drive | 305 | 93.2 | 20 | 92.8 | 1.4968 | 62 | 1.40655891 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 97.9 | line_drive | 154 | 64.8 | 20 | 65.18 | 1.7153 | 38 | 0.97795083 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 86.3 | line_drive | 398 | 102.5 | 20 | 102.46 | 1.4431 | 71 | 1.54691297 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 88.4 | line_drive | 268 | 82.1 | 21 | 82.48 | 1.5274 | 54 | 1.23903956 | 66.261 | ||
| CH | 85.3 | line_drive | 334 | 97 | 22 | 97.46 | 1.4546 | 67 | 1.46390788 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 92.8 | line_drive | 380 | 100.9 | 22 | 100.16 | 1.4729 | 68 | 1.52276603 | 66.261 | ||
| FF | 96.9 | line_drive | 309 | 94.4 | 22 | 94.98 | 1.5076 | 63 | 1.42466911 | 66.261 | ||
| SL | 88.7 | line_drive | 284 | 80.6 | 23 | 80.14 | 1.5412 | 52 | 1.2164018 | 66.261 | ||
| FT | 97.3 | line_drive | 328 | 92.9 | 24 | 92.66 | 1.519 | 61 | 1.40203136 | 66.261 | ||
| SI | 91.8 | line_drive | 297 | 89.1 | 25 | 89.16 | 1.5112 | 59 | 1.34468239 | 66.261 | ||
| AVERAGES | 91.339 | 291.778 | 89.017 | 19.778 | 89.068 | 1.518 | 59.000 | 1.343 | 66.261 | |||
Here we see that exit velo drops to 89.017. This drop is comparable to the drop of optimal – non optimal in fly balls, it seems consistent. Look at Bat Speed Changes vs Contact Changes.
- Bat Speed Changes assumes that his bat speed averaged 59 mph and ranged from 38-68 mph. Possible but not likely. If we do assume bat speed changes then smash would stay optimal. But this isn’t happening.
- Contact Changes assumes that he swung at all his line drives at his line drive average of 66.261 mph but only the quality of contact or smash factor changed. It dropped from 1.518 to 1.343. This change is comparable to the fly ball smash factor change as well.
- The reality again is that it is somewhere in the middle of both.
Conclusion
What have we learned? This is actually really interesting data and it lines up and makes sense. We learned that Cano can probably have a bat speed max of 75 mph but averages 68.917 mph on fly balls and 66.261 on line drives. We also learned that his optimal quality of contact or smash factor for fly balls is 1.458 and 1.475 for line drives. His bad smash factor for fly balls is 1.286 and line drives is 1.343. Knowing this data we can start to predict optimal outcomes for each swing a hitter takes. We know the pitch speed, we have an optimal average swing speed, and we have a range of optimal smash factors. When these are calculated we can assume that for a 95 mph fast ball, cano will have an average bat speed of 68.917, and a smash of 1.458 which would equal an exit velo of 101.7 mph.
I would like to eventually find a way to not look at barrels as the best outcome but look at individual player smash factors and exit velo to determine if his hit was an A+ grade. This is because a barrel is a blanket equation but Dee Gordon wont get many, if any. But he can still make A+ contact and should be credited for that.